Imports of inexperienced hydrogen into the EU may have the ability to compete on worth with native manufacturing in 2030, in response to modelling by Aurora Power Analysis.
Particularly, imports from Australia, Chile, and Morocco can be aggressive with manufacturing in Germany, which is utilized by the analysis agency as a case research.
Aurora calculates it’ll price between EUR 3.9 (USD 4.2) and EUR 5 per kg to make renewable hydrogen in Germany in 2030. It solely appears into electrolysers linked on to renewable power belongings, onshore wind or photo voltaic, as no fully-decarbonised grids are anticipated by then. Within the research, the bottom manufacturing prices are achieved by co-locating an electrolyser with a mix of photo voltaic and onshore wind technology.
By comparability, the levelised price of manufacturing renewable hydrogen in Australia, Chile, Morocco and the UAE by 2030 is estimated at EUR 3.1 per kg for the previous two international locations, EUR 3.2 for Morocco and EUR 3.6 for the UAE. These are all locations with excessive renewables potential and present investor curiosity in creating hydrogen tasks for export.
The most cost effective choice can be importing hydrogen into Germany from Morocco by ship as liquid hydrogen — EUR 4.58 per kg. Imports from Morocco utilizing liquid natural hydrogen carriers (LOHC) or transporting hydrogen as ammonia may have barely increased prices however will nonetheless be aggressive.
From Australia and Chile, it might even be viable to import hydrogen however solely whether it is transported as ammonia. Together with the bills for re-conditioning the hydrogen, the prices are estimated at EUR 4.84 per kg and EUR 4.86 per kg, respectively. Imports from the UAE are usually not seen to be aggressive, with the most affordable choice, transporting hydrogen as ammonia, estimated at EUR 5.36 per kg.
Pipelines are anticipated to cut back prices additional. Imports from Morocco by way of pipeline would price EUR 3.72 per kg in 2030 however a hydrogen pipeline linking Germany and Morocco isn’t anticipated by that 12 months.
“The worldwide momentum behind the hydrogen business exhibits no indicators of slowing in 2023—export undertaking bulletins are coming thick and quick,” mentioned Anise Ganbold, head of analysis, hydrogen, at Aurora Power Analysis. “Our evaluation gives a reality test to this and finds that importing hydrogen into Europe even over lengthy distances makes financial sense given the a lot decrease price of renewable power in markets akin to Morocco and Australia,” added Ganbold.
The European Fee’s REPowerEU Plan targets 10 million tonnes a 12 months of renewable hydrogen imports by 2030 and the identical quantity of home manufacturing. In line with Aurora, the EU would want not less than 75 GW of electrolyser capability by 2030 to realize the manufacturing goal.
In Spain, as an example, the price of producing hydrogen in 2030 can be EUR 3.10 per kg and imports by way of pipeline to Germany would price EUR 3.46 per kg. Completely different transportation strategies by ship would vary from EUR 4.35 to EUR 4.57 per kg.
(EUR 1 = USD 1.087)