Australia boasts a pipeline of practically $1 trillion of huge scale renewable initiatives, encompassing applied sciences together with onshore and offshore wind, photo voltaic PV, hydrogen electrolysers and storage, in line with a brand new evaluation.
David Dixon, an analyst with Rystad Power, says there are a complete of practically 1,300 initiatives put ahead by round 600 completely different firms that quantity to some 400 gigawatts of latest capability, value round $830 billion at present prices.
That’s greater than sufficient to provide the quantity of electrical energy in Australia – a number of occasions over – but it surely additionally factors to mega initiatives that need to inexperienced power exports within the type of hydrogen and ammonia, and to provide new home inexperienced industries reminiscent of inexperienced metal and different low carbon merchandise.
The evaluation is well timed provided that Australia is heading into a brand new federal election marketing campaign the place one facet will probably be looking for to demonise the shift to inexperienced power, claiming thousands of jobs and billions of dollars in fossil fuel investment are at risk from the transition.
However these claims fail to recognise the large potential of the inexperienced power transition, and the numerous licks of native and world capital which can be queuing up for the chance to put money into Australia, a rustic that ought to emerge as a inexperienced power superpower due to its unrivalled assets, together with wind, photo voltaic, minerals and land.
The size of what’s being proposed is highlighted within the graph above. Orange exhibits the working initiatives and yellow are these beneath development. Inexperienced are people who have reached monetary shut or have long run contracts, however all are dwarfed by the “idea” initiatives in blue.
These embrace a few of the world’s largest initiatives, such because the 26GW Solar Cable challenge within the Northern Territory, together with 32GWh of battery storage, and the huge 52GW and 26GW wind and photo voltaic initiatives introduced by CWP International in Western Australia, focusing on the inexperienced hydrogen and ammonia markets.
There are additionally the newly unveiled 5.4GW wind and photo voltaic challenge, with 9GWh of battery storage, put ahead by Andrew Forrest’s Fortescue Future Industries, and a bunch of different related initiatives starting from 1GW to 5GW throughout the nation.
However even inside the principle grid the pipeline is surging. NSW reckons it has greater than 135GW of challenge proposals for 4 of the 5 renewable power zones it plans, and Queensland has greater than 60GW of challenge proposals.
Dixon’s analysis identifies some 655 utility scale photo voltaic PV initiatives, some 290 onshore wind initiatives, and a few 235 large battery initiatives. The checklist doesn’t embrace rooftop or small, distributed belongings.
He says one of many options of the market in 2022 is the arrival of the “giga-scale” initiatives – these of 1,000MW or extra – a few of which have already begun development, such because the Macintyre wind challenge in Queensland and the primary stage of the huge Goyder South challenge in South Australia.
The totals included within the close to time period outlook are much less spectacular than the pipeline, as a result of all of it wants to seek out area on the prevailing grid, no imply feat given the challenges in securing provide chains, contractors, and connection agreements and negotiating commissioning hurdles.
Up to now yr, photo voltaic PV and a few large battery initiatives have taken the lion’s share of latest development, however Dixon predicts wind to change into the dominant power in new development begins in 2022, reflecting the contraction of initiatives attributable to the photo voltaic duck curve and plunging noon costs.
“Within the wind area … we have now roughly 2.5 gigawatts of capability with energy buy agreements but to begin development,” Dixon informed a webinar on Tuesday.
“We do anticipate the storage is extra particularly the lithium ion battery capability to proceed to flourish in Australia, a slowdown in utility PV.”
One other notable development will probably be a re-boot in constructions tarts in Victoria, which has declined dramatically since 2018, across the time the final renewable public sale was allotted.
“A number of the drivers for developments have come again into Victoria,” Dixon says. “One is that there are a selection of belongings inside Victoria with energy buy agreements or or wind belongings that we anticipate to begin development in 2022.
“And subsequent is the results of the V-RET 2 auctions which is able to get introduced someday within the latter half of this yr. And whether or not these belongings begin development in 22 or early 23 is but to be seen however that may herald these 600 megawatts of capability to be developed into the system.
“The wind and PV sector in Victoria is basically concentrated to the southwest and largely concentrated to wind so we do anticipate to see some diversification seemingly into utility PV and to the north. east a part of the grid within the state.”
However commissioning challenges loom massive. “So proper now, of the highest 10 largest belongings being commissioned in the mean time second eight of them are in New South Wales,” he says.
“Previous to 2020 There was a 75% likelihood that commissioning for any asset would take lower than 200 days past 2020. That is this has been decreased considerably, so solely 50% of belongings (are anticipated) to take lower than 200 days. So the commissioning durations are literally getting worse, not higher. ”